Financial Markets                      04/08 15:37

   

   NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices plunged below $95 per barrel, and stock markets 
surged worldwide Wednesday after President Donald Trump pulled back from his 
threat to destroy Iran.

   The S&P 500 leaped 2.5% after Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with 
Iran, less than 90 minutes before a deadline Trump had set for it to open the 
Strait of Hormuz and allow oil tankers to exit the Persian Gulf. The Dow Jones 
Industrial Average rallied 1,325 points, or 2.8%, and the Nasdaq composite 
soared 2.8% following even bigger gains in European and Asian stock markets.

   To be sure, stock prices are still below where they were before the war. And 
oil prices are still higher because of the threat of a resumption to the war. 
The ceasefire already looks precarious, and dueling reports from Iran state 
media and the White House disagreed Wednesday on whether Iran had closed the 
Strait of Hormuz again.

   Such uncertainty caused some of the euphoria that fueled financial markets 
in the morning to fade as Wednesday's trading progressed, and financial markets 
have been prone to sharp and sudden reversals since the war began.

   "There is a reason to be optimistic, but it is still too early to tell, 
because, as you know, after all, it is Trump," said Takashi Hiroki, chief 
strategist at MONEX.

   So far in the war, Trump has set several deadlines for Iran to open the 
Strait of Hormuz, a main thoroughfare for oil to reach customers worldwide from 
the Persian Gulf, and has threatened big repercussions if Iran doesn't, only to 
delay them.

   It's similar to a year ago, when Trump threatened stiff tariffs on imports 
from other countries on "Liberation Day." After a couple delays, his 
administration eventually negotiated lower tariffs with many countries, though 
still higher than from before his second term. That led some investors to 
allege Trump "always chickens out," or "TACO," if financial markets show enough 
pain.

   "Is it just kicking of the can down the road, moving the goalposts, TACO 
Tuesday, or whatever metaphor we'd like, to only to have tempers flare and 
bombs drop again?" Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth 
Management, asked about the two-week ceasefire with Iran. "Who knows? But it's 
good enough for now to elicit a positive response from the markets."

   The price for a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude oil plunged 16.4% to settle 
at $94.41 after almost dropping to $91 earlier in the morning.

   Brent crude, the international standard, tumbled 13.3% to $94.75 per barrel. 
It had briefly topped $119 when worries about the war with Iran were at their 
highest, but it's still above its roughly $70 price from before the war.

   The next moves for oil prices will depend on how many oil tankers can start 
exiting the Strait of Hormuz and how easy their passage is. Despite claims from 
the White House on Wednesday about an uptick in ships transiting the strait, 
independent analysts say they have seen no change in traffic through it.

   Windward, a maritime intelligence firm that tracks international shipping, 
said all ships transiting the strait must still coordinate safe passage with 
Iranian authorities, who are requiring hefty tolls of up to $1 a barrel for 
outbound oil, paid in cryptocurrency. The largest supertankers carry up to 3 
million barrels of crude.

   White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed reports from Iranian 
state media that the strait remained closed in response to continued bombing in 
Lebanon by the Israeli military. She said those reports are contrary to 
information being provided to Trump.

   In Asia, where countries are more reliant on oil from the Middle East, South 
Korea's Kospi stock index surged 6.9%. Japan's Nikkei 225 leaped 5.4%, and Hong 
Kong's Hang Seng jumped 3.1%.

   European stock indexes rose nearly as much. Germany's DAX returned 5.1%, and 
France's CAC 40 rallied 4.5%.

   On Wall Street, companies with big fuel bills rallied to trim some of the 
sharp losses taken on worries about oil prices staying high.

   United Airlines soared 7.9% and cut into its loss for the year, which came 
into the day at 20.1%. Cruise ship operator Carnival climbed 11.2%.

   Delta Air Lines rose 3.7% after it reported stronger results for the latest 
quarter than analysts expected. CEO Ed Bastian said demand for flights remains 
strong, and it's making moves to make up for higher fuel bills. Delta on 
Tuesday became the latest airline to raise its fees for checking bags.

   All told, the S&P 500 rose 165.96 points to 6,782.81. The Dow Jones 
Industrial Average jumped 1,325.46 to 47,909.92, and the Nasdaq composite 
rallied 617.15 to 22,635.00.

   In the bond market, Treasury yields dropped as hopes built that easing oil 
prices could let the Federal Reserve resume its cuts to interest rates later 
this year.

   The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.29% from 4.33% late Tuesday. 
Lower Treasury yields give a boost to prices for stocks, bonds and all kinds of 
other investments. They should also ease some of the recent rise in rates for 
mortgages and other loans taken out by U.S. households and businesses.

   When oil prices were screaming higher because of the war, some traders were 
betting on the possibility that the Fed would have to raise interest rates to 
keep a lid on inflation. Now, they're seeing a nearly 25% chance that the Fed 
could resume its cuts to rates in 2026, according to data from CME Group.

   ___

   AP journalists Yuri Kageyama, Matt Ott, Mayuko Ono, Jon Gambrell and Michael 
Biesecker contributed to this report.

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